As Texas Republicans continue their efforts to redraw the state’s congressional district map in a way to boost GOP numbers in Congress, all at the behest of President Donald Trump, one political strategist suspects the plan may end up blowing up in the party’s face.

“This could actually backfire for Republicans,” said Maria Cardona, political strategist and commentator, speaking on CNN.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott called a special session last month to redraw the state’s districts in such a way as to give Republicans five additional House members, a plan originating in and pushed by the White House. And a big part of that plan involves Texas Latino voters, who in 2024 swung hard for Trump.

Republicans’ big bet on Latino voters, however, could very well end up backfiring, and hard, Cardona argued.

“I have a lot of Latino leaders in my group chat, and they’re saying this could backfire for Republicans,” she said.

“If they’re trying to group a lot of Latino voters in those districts, which I’ve heard is one of the things that they’re trying to do, and they are counting that the shift to Trump is going to be permanent? It hasn’t been permanent, and in fact, you have data from 2018 and 2022 that (shows) Democrats overperformed with Latinos and Republicans – not Trump – underperformed with Latinos.”

Trump did make significant gains with Latino voters in Texas in 2024, winning 55% of their vote, a 13-point increase over 2020. However, those gains did not translate to other GOP candidates, with Republicans performing far worse with Latino voters when Trump wasn’t on the ballot.

“This is a midterm election, it’s not a presidential,” Cardona said. “Trump is not on the ballot, so this could actually backfire.”

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