There’s a phenomenon in the world of politics and policy that is entirely predictable but still comes as a bit of a surprise to witness. It occurs when powerful politicians leave office and then later return to visit their old stomping grounds.

As regulars at the North Carolina General Assembly can attest, unless the politician in question has gone on to another position of prominence in which they wield significant influence, the response from the members currently serving is almost always the same: a moment of polite applause, a few handshakes and selfies and, well, that’s about it. By the time of their second visit, the once prominent pol is pretty much just another face in the crowd.

A similar process often impacts political leaders – most typically presidents and governors – who find themselves confronting term limits and the approach of lame duck status. Absent the possibility that they’ll stay in the game and remain a force with which to be reckoned after departing office, even powerful politicians can quickly find their influence leaking away like air from a deflating tire.

The expectation, since confirmed, that he would seek a U.S. Senate seat, combined with his steady overall popularity with voters, helped to insulate former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper somewhat from this phenomenon, but for two-term presidents, genuine political relevance and influence as the end approaches – much less in the years that follow — is almost always elusive.

Bill Clinton was part of an unprecedented effort by a former president to evade this age-old pattern by returning to the White House as First Gentleman, but that was a unique situation unlikely to be repeated anytime soon.

And this reality – the hard truth that political power is fleeting and generally not hereditary in the American system — is something that seems sure to soon impact Donald Trump and the cult of personality to which he has given rise.

It’s true of course, that we are just a little over six months into a second Trump term that’s scheduled to run through 2029. It’s also true that the first six months have featured a whirlwind of activity – including scores of norm-shattering executive orders, hundreds of federal lawsuits (many of which Trump has won), and the enactment of one of the largest and most radical pieces of legislation in U.S. history.

Indeed, when it comes to dominating the political and lawmaking scenes, Trump is arguably at the pinnacle of his career and power. Among most Republicans, his word is currently law and few presidents in U.S. history have ever claimed and sought to act as if they had such complete power.

But it’s also true that there are several factors already at work that are causing noteworthy cracks to form in the Trump edifice – cracks that are likely to grow and spread (perhaps rapidly).

Topping the immediate list in this realm is the metastasizing controversy surrounding the Jeffrey Epstein files. Though Trump has long skillfully manipulated and exploited the controversy surrounding his former pal and his sex crimes, there is growing evidence that his magic in this area may be running out.

Having helped convince millions of his followers that there was a nefarious conspiracy at work surrounding Epstein, Trump’s sudden “there’s nothing to see here” explanation is falling flat with many on the right. And if any sort of smoking gun emerges confirming Trump participation in Epstein’s sexcapades, it would be a presidency-altering development.

But even if the Epstein crisis somehow fizzles, the list of other looming Trump troubles remains long and daunting.

There are his ebbing poll numbers. The latest Gallup Poll finds his approval rating at 37% (29% among independents) — the lowest point of second term.

There’s the widespread unpopularity of the so-called “big, beautiful bill.” While it’s true that many provisions are not scheduled to take effect right away, it’s hard to see how the impending reality of lost health insurance and food assistance for millions (or the plan to ignore the global climate crisis) can possibly boost Trump’s popularity.

There are the upcoming 2026 elections in which the chance that Democrats will win back control of the U.S. House and maybe even the Senate continues to grow steadily. Talk about a presidency-altering development!

And then, of course, there is Trump’s mental and physical health. With his 80th birthday fast approaching, a recent diagnosis of chronic venous insufficiency, obvious weight and memory challenges, and a well-known penchant for teenager’s diet, Trump’s chances for a relatively rapid decline would appear significantly less than zero.

Nothing is for certain, of course. Trump has confounded critics many times before and with six Supreme Court justices sitting ready to do his bidding, he remains formidable.

But given the challenges he faces, the lack of any plausible political heir apparent and the emptiness of the GOP bench right now, it’s easy to see how both Trump and the MAGA movement could be poised for a rapid political decline. And if that happens, experience shows that it won’t take long for both to quickly be seen and treated as yesterday’s news.

NC Newsline is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. NC Newsline maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Rob Schofield for questions: info@ncnewsline.com.