1. Bulls and Bears
There’s a bull case for Trump-Epstein which sees this story as a serious wound that will bleed forever and that carries the potential to destroy the MAGA coalition. It goes something like this:
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The Epstein story can’t go away. News will dribble out constantly and the source material is so voluminous that the well can’t run dry.
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The story is simple, easy to understand, and salacious. This isn’t the savings and loan scandal. People will be interested in it.
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There is also a robust ecosystem of rumors and conspiracies surrounding it, making it attractive to both crazies and low-info mouth-breathers.
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Trump’s team is in disarray. You simultaneously have the president insisting that there’s nothing to the Epstein story and it’s all a hoax while high-ranking Justice Department figures are suggesting that they are about to blow the whistle on all of the Democrats who were tangled up with Epstein.
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Also: There are members of the administration who stand to gain if Trump is weakened to the point he can be pushed aside.
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If/when Democrats retake the House, they can immediately hold hearings on Epstein and start pushing the story forward on their own.
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Already you can see a cleavage between MAGA diehards and the Crank Extended Universe (CEU) of podcasters, internet hustlers, and apolitical normies who swung behind Trump in 2024 not because they believed in MAGA but because they were anti-establishment.
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Trump’s base of support could decline by a lot—maybe a third (or more)—as these soft-Trumpers jump ship and ambitious Republicans looking to the post-Trump future start making moves against the old man.
Pretty convincing, right? Look, I want to believe and I can absolutely see the medium-run future shaking out that way.
But I can also see a different future, where Epstein turns out to be survivable for Trump. Fair warning: You’re not going to like this possible future.
Not. One. Bit.