WHEN I PROVIDE NATIONAL SECURITY analysis to non-military audiences, I try to provide clear, grounded assessments of global affairs in terms that are both understandable and truthful. In military circles, this kind of update is known as a SITREP—military-ese for “situation report.” This kind of reporting allows intelligence analysts and staff officers the chance to offer commanders a concise, fact-based snapshot of battlefield conditions, the key players involved, and likely developments and outcomes. It’s not built on aspirations, rhetoric, or press releases. It’s grounded in facts, understanding of history and trends, patterns of behavior, and clear-eyed judgment.
Recently, I gave a kind of global SITREP briefing to a civilian group. Many were surprised—not by the number of ongoing conflicts, but by the depth of the historical, cultural, and political complexities that underpin each of them. I was a little surprised that they were surprised, because none of the conflicts we were discussing were simple ones to solve.
Though civilian audiences aren’t privy to classified details that inform military SITREPs, and while I no longer have a security clearance that provides intelligence secrets, it’s easy to apply the same disciplined approach in the SITREPs I’m used to using to public discussions of global security. In that spirit, I’ve assembled this unclassified SITREP of some of the world’s most active conflicts, and why peace in these areas remain so elusive.
Before we begin the analysis, one book I often rely on for insights about historical and culture dynamics of conflict in different regions of the world is James F. Dunnigan and Austin Bay’s A Quick and Dirty Guide to War, first published in 1985 and now in its fourth edition. One of its many insights is: “Wars don’t erupt out of nowhere. They grow out of long-standing grievances, unhealed wounds, and leaders who exploit both.”
With that in mind, here’s the SITREP on the world’s major ongoing wars, with just a bit of background.
Israel–Gaza
Gaza—an area that has repeatedly seen conflict over the last few decades— has now entered a tragic phase of its most recent war: humanitarian collapse. While Israel has announced daily “tactical pauses” to allow aid delivery, Palestinian leadership is non-existent, and the food distribution system is overwhelmed and under-resourced. Malnutrition is widespread, especially among children. UN agencies warn of an imminent famine. Since the war began on October 7th, the estimated number of Palestinian casualties has approached 60,000 . Despite repeated claims that a ceasefire is “imminent,” diplomacy remains stuck. Meanwhile, Western governments—including France and Ireland—are moving toward recognizing Palestinian statehood, placing new political pressure on both Israel and the United States. From a military perspective, Israel has largely achieved its goal of degrading Hamas to the point that it’s no longer a significant military threat, but the recovery of all hostages is not complete and there appears to be no plan for a post-war Gaza governance.
Where this conflict stands today: Gaza is a humanitarian disaster zone. Ceasefire talks are stagnant. International pressure is increasing, but a breakthrough remains unlikely any time soon.
Ukraine–Russia
Russia remains committed to their 2022 strategy of subsuming Ukraine’s territory and replacing the Ukrainian government, and their 2025 summer offensive has intensified, targeting Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipro with waves of drones and missiles. Ukrainian forces—especially elite units like the “Da Vinci Wolves”—are holding ground and remain supported by their government and the citizens of Ukraine, but at a very high cost. Civilian infrastructure remains a primary Russian target. Meanwhile, Russia refuses to engage in peace talks unless Ukraine accepts terms that violate its territorial integrity and long-term sovereignty. Although the United States has resumed limited arms shipments, the Trump administration’s shifting public deadlines and tariff threats have oversimplified a war rooted in historical trauma, national sovereignty, and civilian survival.
Where this conflict stands today: High-intensity fighting continues. No ceasefire exists. Diplomacy is stalled, and U.S. policy is unpredictable.
India–Pakistan (Kashmir)
Since the partition of British India in 1947 and subsequent creation of India and Pakistan, there has been a long-running dispute over the territory of Kashmir. Recently, following a terrorist attack in April, India launched strikes on what it claimed were militant camps in Pakistan-controlled territory. Pakistan responded with shelling, and a ceasefire agreement brokered on May 10 unraveled within hours. Skirmishes still occur daily, as they have for decades. India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty and restarted contentious dam projects. With both sides led now by increasingly nationalist governments and each possessing nuclear weapons, the margin for miscalculation is—as it has always been—perilously thin.
Where this conflict stands today: Ceasefire broken. Tensions still high and rising. No de-escalation mechanisms are currently working.
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)–Rwanda (M23 and ADF)
Eastern Congo remains unstable, with occasional clashes between Congolese forces, the M23 rebel group, and the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), an Islamic State–affiliated group from Uganda that has been operating in the DRC for over a decade. A recent peace declaration brokered in Doha lacks enforcement. Last week, after an announced ceasefire, the ADF killed some 40 civilians in an attack on a church in Ituri province. At the same time, international firms are accelerating attempts at mineral extraction projects amid weak governance and ongoing violence—adding layers of geopolitical and economic friction to an already combustible environment.
Where this conflict stands today: A tentative pause exists between the DRC government and M23, but violence continues. ADF remains a major disruptive threat. Civilian safety is minimal.
Balkans (Bosnia, Serbia-Kosovo)
Since the mid-1990s, tensions have ebbed and flowed in this former Yugoslavian region. While the area is always tense, recent nationalist movements are violently reopening old wounds. Leaders in Republika Srpska have revived secessionist rhetoric. In Kosovo, Serbia-aligned factions have boycotted elections and incited violence. NATO is reinforcing its KFOR peacekeepers—still in place more than 20 years after the original peace agreement. EU-sponsored normalization talks are frozen because of mistrust, regional resentment, and external interference.
Where this conflict stands today: Frozen conflict with rising tensions. NATO presence is still essential. Peace remains fragile.
Syria and the Druze
After years of fighting since the Arab spring uprisings, Suwayda province in southern Syria has become the newest deadly battleground. Sectarian violence between Druze militias and Bedouin tribes has been compounded by Israeli strikes on Syrian regime targets, creating a volatile power vacuum. Hundreds have died and tens of thousands displaced. The Suwayda Military Council—a Druze-led group—now controls key areas but lacks recognition by the new Syrian government. Their calls for international protection reflect the desperation of a minority population with deep historical roots in the area, though they have few allies.
Where this conflict stands today: A weak ceasefire is routinely violated. Authority is fragmented. Sectarian violence is accelerating.
Armenia–Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh)
Since the first war between these countries in 1994, this area has seen continued conflict. A proposed peace agreement from the last engagement remains unsigned. Ceasefire violations have resumed. Azerbaijan’s detention of Armenian officials has derailed recent talks. Meanwhile, Armenia is shifting away from Russia as a protector and leaning westward. Trust between Baku and ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh is virtually nonexistent.
Where this conflict stands today: Peace talks stalled. The ceasefire is tenuous. A durable solution is still out of reach.
Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger)
An ever-growing perfect storm of complex insurgency and terrorism, environmental crises, and political collapse continues to engulf and expand across the Sahel region of Africa. Islamist militants increasingly control major regions. Five million people are displaced. The recent French and American troop withdrawals have left a vacuum now partially filled by Russian mercenary groups. Governments are weak, legitimacy is eroding, and humanitarian aid is barely getting through.
Where this conflict stands today: Islamist insurgencies growing. State collapse is deepening. International support is inadequate.
Yemen
The war in Yemen continues in slow-motion catastrophe. Since the start of the Yemeni Civil War in 2015, the UN Human Rights Council has said more than 4 million have been forced to flee their homes and 30 million are in dire need of humanitarian aid. The Houthis still hold about a quarter of the country centered on the capital, Sanaa, from which they also attack shipping in the Red Sea. The rest of the country is fragmented between rival factions. A Saudi-backed coalition still supports the government, but real power remains diffused. Famine is widespread and increasing, and recent strikes by the United States on terrorist targets—which often coincide with strikes against critical infrastructure—have worsened conditions.
Where this conflict stands today: Humanitarian crisis persists. Diplomatic talks are going nowhere, and no peace process is functioning. Ceasefires continuously and rapidly erode.
Myanmar
Myanmar has been in a full-fledged civil war since 2021, when a military junta overthrew the democratically elected government. The current war is in some ways a continuation and intensification of the ethnic insurgencies dating back to the country’s independence from the British Empire in 1948. The government controls most of the population centers but as little as one-fifth of the rural territory. Rebel groups, often divided along ethnic lines, control those areas. The most invested outside actor is China, which supports the central government.
Where this conflict stands today: The country is torn by war. No faction is likely to dominate. Millions remain internally displaced, and hundreds of thousands are refugees have fled to neighboring countries.
Sudan
The civil war has been raging since 2023, when the two forces that united to depose the former dictator, Omar al-Bashir, began their own power struggle. The Sudanese Armed Forces currently control most of the north and east of the country, while the Rapid Support Forces control the more densely populated southwest. The total death toll could be as high as 150,000, while millions have become internally displaced or refugees.
Where this conflict stands today: Neither side is likely to prevail, and the most likely outcome may be separate, rival governments.
WHILE I HAVE ATTEMPTED TO REDUCE these wars into succinct terms, these conflicts defy simple narratives.All of them are extremely complex with staggering historical, cultural, and global political dynamics. They are never as simple as one bad actor fighting one good one. They are rooted in power struggles, yes—but also in trauma, history, geography, and cycles of mistrust. Most of them show no signs of clear resolutions. A Quick and Dirty Guide to War again warns against wishful thinking: “The most dangerous conflicts are not those that start suddenly, but those that never really ended.”
The lesson is simple, if uncomfortable: Durable peace requires more than slogans, tariffs, or press conferences to drive competing parties to act amiably, and they certainly require more than rapidly announced ceasefires or peace talks that have little or no connection to reality on the ground. Military domination can win a war but not guarantee a peace. Real solutions require time, honesty, hard diplomatic work, military action, a method to generate trust between warring parties, and the courage to confront and address painful truths about the past.
When only using threats and soundbites as a proposed solution, the world will remain caught somewhere between ceasefires and catastrophe.