Donald Trump has staked a great part of his second shot at making America great again on promises that his tariff war will flood the U.S. Treasury with money and ease American consumers’ suffering.

That could all fall apart if a federal appeals court and then the Supreme Court rule that he has usurped authority from Congress. The government would then have to refund affected parties, something that would be hard to unwind.

According to a report from Politico’s Ari Hawkins, a Trump loss in the courts will set off a ‘logistical nightmare” when it comes to claims, who gets them, and how fast.

The report notes that the president shouldn’t be surprised if it all goes south, according to experts in his own Department of Justice.

“Trump’s own Justice Department has acknowledged in legal briefs filed with a U.S. Court of Appeals in recent months that if the tariffs were ruled unlawful, importers would be entitled to refunds, which Customs and Border Protection would likely process through standard administrative procedures,” Politico is reporting before adding, “The scenario is already alarming some Trump allies who strongly support his tariff policies, but also are pessimistic that the duties the administration imposed under emergency law will survive the Supreme Court.”

The report notes that it could be a long time before companies will see refunds if the Supreme Court rules against the administration, and even then, they will likely have to pay out of pocket for trade lawyers to assist them.

Politico is reporting, “That could add up to a sizable sum the administration would have to figure out how to repay. It’s not clear what portion of the tariff revenue comes from the duties imposed on trading partners under emergency law, and how much has been produced by the tariffs on specific sectors, like cars. But combined, it exceeded $150 billion at the end of July, according to Treasury Department data. That’s nearly double the $78 billion netted over the same period last fiscal year.”

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