In November 2025, Democratic and GOP strategists will be paying close attention to the outcome of gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey. The nominees have been chosen in both races: Democratic former Rep. Mikie Sherrill is up against GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey, while the nominees in Virginia are Democratic former Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.
In an article published on July 7, The Hill’s Julia Manchester emphasizes that political strategists see the Virginia gubernatorial race and fight for control of the Virginia House of Delegates as a “key bellwether” and a referendum on Donald Trump’s second presidency.
Manchester reports, “The races could prove to be a litmus test for the first year of Trump’s second administration as Republicans prepare to defend their majorities in Congress next year, especially as Virginia has a tendency to oscillate between the two parties in the race for governor…. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball each rate the gubernatorial contest as ‘lean Democratic.’”
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Once deep red, Virginia has evolved into a swing state — and it is arguably the Democratic Party’s strongest state in the South. Republicans haven’t won Virginia in a presidential race since George W. Bush in 2004, and both of Virginia’s U.S. senators are Democrats: Tim Kaine and Mark Warner. In 2024, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris carried Virginia by roughly 5.7 percent.
In 2021, however, Republican now-Gov. Glenn Youngkin pulled off a single-digit upset in Virginia. But Youngkin cannot run for reelection in 2025 because under Virginia law, governors cannot seek two consecutive terms, and he won’t be eligible to run for a nonconsecutive second term until 2029.
Virginia-based political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Hill, “The Democrats want to look at this as a bellwether largely because they think they have an advantage here.”
If Spanberger, a former CIA agent, wins in November, Democrats will view it as a positive sign for their prosects in the 2026 midterms.
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“A Roanoke College survey released in May showed Spanberger with a wide 43 percent to 26 percent lead over Earle-Sears, with 28 percent of voters saying they were undecided,” Manchester observes. “However, another May poll released by the business group Virginia FREE showed Spanberger leading by 4 percentage points. Spanberger also holds a fundraising lead over Earle-Sears.”
Manchester adds, “According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Spanberger raised $6.5 million, while Earle-Sears brought in $3.5 million; Spanberger currently has more than $14 million in the bank, while Earle-Sears has just less than $3 million.”
Spanberger believes that the mass layoffs of federal workers being carried out by the Trump Administration with the help of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will work to her advantage in November.
Spanberger told The Hill, “Virginia is home to more than 320,000 federal employees. I will never miss an opportunity to make sure the president understands that the haphazard DOGE effort has been deeply, deeply detrimental to Virginians, to their families, to our economy, and that the havoc it has wreaked across our commonwealth is so significant…. As a former national security professional, I have dire concerns about what the future looks like.”
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Read Julia Manchester’s full article for The Hill at this link.