When President Donald Trump signed his “big, beautiful bill” into law over the 4th of July Weekend, many of the law’s critics warned that its steep cuts to Medicaid would, according to Congressional Budget Office (CBO) data, cause millions of Americans to lose their health insurance. Another major worry, critics say, is that failing to fund subsidies for the Affordable Care Act of 2010, a.k.a. Obamacare, will render countless Healthcare.gov users uninsured.
Axios reporter Peter Sullivan, in an article published on August 8, stresses that Republicans will be “in a bind” politically if Americans who have been using the ACA exchanges can’t afford higher premiums in 2026.
“Pressure on Congress to renew Affordable Care Act subsidies is likely to ramp up this fall as notices of 2026 premium increases go out and consumers get their first warnings that huge rate hikes could be coming,” Sullivan explains. “Why it matters: Backers of renewing the enhanced tax credits, which expire at the end of this year, hope the sticker shock could motivate Republicans to get behind a short-term reauthorization to avoid an uproar over premium increases in an election year.”
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Sullivan notes that according to KFF research, more than 20 million Americans who have been getting their health insurance via the ACA exchanges will see their premiums increase an average of 75 percent if the current subsidies expire at the end of 2025 and are not funded.
“That puts Republicans in a bind heading into the midterm elections: stuck between resisting an expansion of the ACA and the fear of steep health cost increases for their constituents,” Sullivan reports. “Although some GOP lawmakers are open to a deal on an extension, there’s substantial concern over the projected $335 billion cost over 10 years — and the often-expressed sentiment that the subsidies are a handout to insurance companies. Between the lines: When exactly people will get notices about premium increases for next year depends in part on whether they are in one of the 20 states that run their own ACA marketplaces, where notices typically go out earlier.”
Sullivan continues, “Insurers at a minimum must send notices before November 1, when sign-ups for next year begin. Those notices tend not to have completely up-to-date individualized information, so many people likely will not see exactly how much more they will pay.”
Alliance of Community Health Plans CEO Ceci Connolly and Leslie Dach, who chairs the group Protect Our Care, are both sounding the alarm.
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Connolly told Axios, “I think that this could turn into quite a political issue for an important voting bloc, and frankly, a constituency that the data suggests swung more heavily toward Republicans in the last elections. This will hit pocketbooks directly.”
Dach told Axios, “This is going to rain starting in October; people are going to start getting these notices. And it comes right to your doorstep, right to your mailbox.”
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Read the full Axios article at this link.