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Battle Lines Being Drawn: Several States Now Plan to Redraw District Lines in Response to Texas – Who Are the Real Gerrymanderers?

Traditionally, states redraw congressional district lines every decade following the U.S. Census.  In 2020, however, the census was riddled with controversy and flaws.  Several states were undercounted while others were overcounted.  Coincidentally, whether the flawed count was over or under for the states generally was coordinated with their tendency to vote for a certain party.

According to a report released by the U.S. Census Bureau in 2022, Arkansas (5.04%), Florida (3.48%), Mississippi (4.11%), Tennessee(4.78%), Texas (1.92%), and Illinois (1.97%) were undercounted.  Illinois is the only state of the bunch that historically votes Democrat.

On the other hand, Delaware (5.45%), Hawaii (6.79%), Massachusetts (2.24%), Minnesota (3.84%), New York (3.44%), Ohio (1.49%), Rhode Island (5.05%), and Utah (2.59%) were overcounted.  Of those eight states, six of them historically vote Democrat.

Florida would have gained an additional House seat, since they missed the threshold in the 2020 Census by 171,500 people.  Texas and Tennessee would have also gained a seat.  Illinois, the only Democrat state overcounted, lost a seat in the 2020 Census and would have still lost a seat even if the 1.97% undercount was included.

Meanwhile, the overcounted states, predominantly Democrat, would have lost several seats.  Minnesota would have lost a seat as they were only 26 people over the threshold for their eighth seat.  Rhode Island and New York also should have each lost a seat.  Colorado gained a seat that it would not have gained had the count been accurate.

The inaccuracy of the 2020 U.S. Census caused a net shift of seven U.S. House seats that disproportionately favored Democrats.

President Donald Trump on Thursday called for the Department of Commerce to “immediately begin work on a new and highly accurate CENSUS,” noting that “people who are in our Country illegally WILL NOT BE COUNTED IN THE CENSUS.”

 

Fast-forward to the Texas Democrats’ meltdown regarding the 2025 effort to redraw district lines.  Over 50 Democrats fled their seats in the Texas legislature in a temper-tantrum intended to stop a quorum and stymie the legislature’s efforts to plan for redistricting.

Attorney General Ken Paxton and Governor Greg Abbott have sought to remove those who fled their sworn duty to the people of Texas and vowed to prosecute anyone who may have aided and abetted their deliberate vacancy.

As a result of the rare mid-census redistricting in Texas, several states have said they will retaliate in response.  California and New York, for example, are looking into how they can circumvent their “independent” commissioning boards to expand their delegations’ majorities.

Last week, Massachusetts governor Maura Healey made veiled threats that she would gerrymander Massachusetts in response to Texas’s effort; however Massachusetts already has exclusive Democrat representation with their nine House seats all held by Democrats.  This, despite the state voting 36% for President Trump in the 2024 Presidential election.

Massachusetts has exclusive Democrat representation in the House, despite 36% of the state voting for the Republican candidate for President.

In New York, the split is 19-7, or 73% Democrat representation, despite only 56% of the state voting for Kamala Harris in the 2024 Presidential Election.

And in California, representation is 43-9 in favor of the Dems (83%) despite only 58% of voters casting a vote for Kamala Harris.

Meanwhile, in Texas, the split is 25-13 in favor of Republicans (66%).  Unlike New York, California, and Massachusetts, Texas’s representation in Congress is much more in line with the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election.  President Trump received 56% of the vote, just 10 points less than the Republican party’s representation.  California is overrepresented by 25% and New York by 17%.  Massachusetts is overrepresented by 36% when compared with the voter turnout.

Massachusetts isn’t an outlier in New England.  The northeast region has 21 representatives divided among the six states.

None of them are Republicans despite President Trump garnering around 40% of the vote in all six states (Vermont being the lowest at 32% and New Hampshire the highest at 48%).

Illinois, notorious for gerrymandering, has 17 representatives.  Despite President Trump getting 43.47% of the vote in Illinois, Republicans only hold 3 seats in the state, or 17.65%.  Democrats are overrepresented by a whopping 28%.

As far as efforts to redraw district lines, the states proposing the idea may face an uphill battle.

New York likely wouldn’t be able to accomplish the redrawing before the 2026 midterm elections though, as New York requires a constitutional amendment initiated by the legislature.  Gov. Kathy Hochul told MSNBC, “I wish I could just call a special election and change it.  I’d do it in a heartbeat.  But we have a constitutional amendment process that’s required first.”  She went on to say that she would call for the legislature to begin the process immediately when they return in January in order to get the amendment on the ballot for 2027.

In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom said he will work with the legislature to get a statewide ballot measure to redistrict on their upcoming November 4th election.  “We’re not going to roll over…we’re going to fight fire with fire.  We also will punch above our weight in terms of the impact of what we’re doing.  And I think that should be absorbed by those in the Texas delegation.  Whatever they are doing will be neutered here in the state of California,” Newsom said according to NBC News.

Among the other states either redrawing or considering redrawing their lines are Ohio, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and New Jersey, according to The Hill.  Ohio has to redraw their lines as the 2022 map was only approved by a simple majority on party lines rather than a required supermajority.  Florida is in preliminary talks with Florida House Speaker Daniel Perez announcing a redistricting committee last week.

Vice President JD Vance visited Indiana last week to discuss the idea with Gov. Mike Braun.  Braun didn’t immediately agree but left the door open for consideration, according to The Hill.  Braun would need to call a special session of the legislature, where Republicans hold a supermajority, to initiate the process.

Perhaps it is necessary to conduct a mid-decade census given the discrepancies in the 2020 version, conducted under the harsh COVID restrictions and allowing the counting of illegal aliens that can’t legally vote to be considered for representation.  The acknowledged miscounts alone account for at least seven seats that would have heavily favored Republicans.  Factor out illegal migrants living in sanctuary cities and states and that number would likely grow considerably.

 

 

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