It was pretty startling to see Mike Johnson do a complete about face, from breaking with Trump and calling for the files related to the Epstein investigation to be released to unprecedentedly shutting down Congress until September to desperately avoid a vote on releasing them.

Johnson may have developed a spine momentarily last week, and then had it ripped out by a menacing and threatening Trump. Johnson suddenly decided Trump needed more “space” before a vote could take place. Or it could have been, as Kiera Butler at Mother Jones suggests, that Johnson is bowing to Christian nationalists, some of whom are among the MAGA supporters defending Trump against what they see as a plot by Democrats regarding the Epstein files.

Whatever the case, however, it underscores that MAGA is deeply divided. Johnson is trying to prevent a vote while Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert and other MAGA extremists have joined progressive Democrat Ro Khanna and right-wing Trump instigator Thomas Massie in trying to bring a vote to the floor.

And that’s what prompted Johnson to send everyone home, fearful that a vote would force the Department of Justice to release all the files, since there are enough Republicans who would join all Democrats to easily pass a bill.

Democrats have effectively put on hold the GOP’s agenda, as Johnson ended all business, vowing nothing until Congress is back in September.

But what happens then?

Trump, who is fearful of what’s in the files—some of which is implicated in stories in the Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and elsewhere—is stalling for time. There may not be enough that’s incriminating, but there is surely enough for much of the public to believe Trump, himself an accused sexual abuser and someone found liable for rape, was deeply involved with Epstein at the time Epstein was engaged in sex trafficking and raping children.

One way Trump is trying to buy time and maybe even come up with a backstory is by having the DOJ speak with Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein’s former girlfriend who is in prison serving a sentence until 2037, found guilty of sexual abuse of minors along with Epstein and having procured many of the girls. The DOJ announced it was seeking to speak with her, and her attorney confirmed that. The plan could be to have her clear Trump of any wrongdoing and then he would, in return, commute her sentence or even pardon her.

But this looks like a very desperate, difficult and unconvincing move. If Trump were to pardon Maxwell or commute her sentence, it would be clear that she lied. Sure, he could wait until the end of his term and in the meantime get this story out of the way, though it would be a MAGA bomb for anyone inthe GOP coming forward.

But before getting to that, she would really have to have information that clears Trump; a simple statement won’t suffice. What could she have? Why would people believe a pedophile who wants special treatment? (She’s also in the process of appealing her case to the Supreme Court.) As MSNBC.com’s Jordan Rubin, a former prosecutor, notes (italics are mine):

it’s difficult to analyze the value of Maxwell’s potential cooperation one way or the other without knowing specifically what she would share.
In any cooperation situation, the name of the game is corroboration. Therefore, in looking at this situation from the perspective of a prosecutor who would have to make a case based on Maxwell’s potential cooperation, she should not only have to be willing to implicate some other person or persons, but also be able to help prove it. Ideally, that would be with documentary or other objective evidence in a hypothetical case in which the defense would have ample room for cross-examination, given how this cooperation would have come about.

So the Maxwell angle won’t seem to work for Trump (and neither are any of the crazy deflections he’s made, like the ridiculous claim that President Obama fomented a “coup”). And the House Oversight Committee, again with Republicans joining Democrats, already has voted to subpoena Maxwell itself:

The House Oversight Committee plans to subpoena Jeffrey Epstein associate Ghislaine Maxwell “as expeditiously as possible,” a committee spokesperson said.
A House Oversight subcommittee on Tuesday without opposition approved a motion directing the committee chair, James Comer, to issue a subpoena for Maxwell. Only four members were present.
Comer, R-Ky., had directed Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., to introduce the motion after Burchett requested that the committee subpoena her. The motion allows “the Committee to formally consider whether to proceed,” the committee spokesperson said.
“The Committee will seek to subpoena Ms. Maxwell as expeditiously as possible,” the spokesperson said. “Since Ms. Maxwell is in federal prison, the Committee will work with the Department of Justice and Bureau of Prisons to identify a date when Committee can depose her.”

So Maxwell, rather than being a tool for Trump (who would have her release some sort of statement), could provide a circus in Congress that keeps the Epstein saga alive no matter what she says. And again, it’s unlikely she clears Trump in any convincing way.

Many Republican members of Congress, meanwhile, will now have to face the rest of the summer being hounded by their constituents, running away from town halls and afraid to do anything, fearful of Trump, but also of their own base, in addition to Democrats and independent who’ve been on their heels for allowing Trump to engage in reckless actions. And not much is going to change by September, when Johnson says he’ll bring Congress back in session.

In response to MSNBC’s Jen Psaki speculating that Trump “is hoping he can outlast this until August” and asking if he can, Democratic Congressman Robert Garcia, the ranking Democrat on the Oversight Committee, said it’s not going to work.

Absolutely not. We’re going to keep talking about the Epstein files until Donald Trump releases them. What’s happening right now is that the American public are seeing that Donald Trump has betrayed them. He’s broken their trust.
He ran on the Epstein files as a key part of his campaign. The MAGA world did as well. His family talked about it constantly. Don, Jr. tweeted about it dozens of times. They have focused the on the release to the public, and to build goodwill among his base. He’s now completely reversed on that. And if Donald Trump and Mike Johnson think Democrats are going to just roll over and let that happen, they are highly mistaken.

So what will Mike Johnson do in September? Just keep Congress on hold? That would be great, with Democrats effectively shutting down the GOP agenda for months and stopping more of the dangerous actions. But the GOP could not sustain that. Johnson may hope that threats against Republicans who are joining with Democrats may force them to back down by then.

But Rep. Thomas Massie and a few others haven’t backed down in the past in voting against Trump. More importantly, the others are unlikely to back down now, since their own base is demanding this and many them are true believers themselves when it comes to the Epstein files.

And if Republicans come back and vote not to release the Epstein files or continue to do what they can to stop Democrats from introducing votes to learn more about a notorious sex trafficker and child rapist, it only helps Democrats, for whom it’s win-win.

Right now and for the indefinite future, Democrats are keeping Republicans from even legislating. And they’re also keeping them and Trump on the run, where they want them.

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